Course announcement:
Introduction to epidemiologic simulation modeling
Fort Collins, Colorado
January 12 - 16, 2009
Sponsored by
Animal Population Health Institute at Colorado State University
United States Department of Agriculture - Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service - Veterinary Services - Centers for Epidemiology and Animal Health
NAADSM Development Team
Adobe PDF version of course announcement
Course description
Simulation modeling is an increasingly well established and essential tool for many epidemiologic investigations, including studies of population disease dynamics and evaluation of mechanisms of disease control. This course will serve as an introduction to the principles, methods, and applications of simulation models of epidemiological systems.
The course will address concepts of disease spread and control from the perspective of the modeler. These epidemiologic principles will be presented and developed in the context of disease models, beginning with simple, deterministic models of disease spread within a population. Several approaches to disease modeling, including chain binomial, Markov chain, and state transition models will be covered. Additional levels of complexity will be incorporated as stochasticity and concepts of spatial and temporal aspects of disease spread modeling are introduced. Participants will also have the opportunity to explore the economic aspects of disease control.
The course will culminate in the use of and development of parameters for NAADSM, a detailed stochastic, temporal, spatial simulation model of contagious disease.
Target audience
This course is intended for epidemiologists, veterinarians, graduate students, and other workers in the fields of animal health and preparedness planning. Previous experience with modeling is not required. Participants should be familiar with basic operations in Microsoft Excel (including the use of formulas, the use of relative and absolute cell references, and production of charts).
Logistics
Dates: The course will be offered January 12 - 16 2009. This is currently the only time this course will be offered in the US in 2009: please register early!
This is a 4 1/2 day course, which will run all day Monday through Thursday and until noon on Friday. Participants should allow sufficient time for travel before Monday and after noon on Friday.
Location: USDA Centers for Epidemiology and Animal Health, Natural Resources Research Center, 2150 Centre Avenue Building B, Fort Collins, Colorado (map)
Cost: Participants will be responsible for the costs of their own travel, lodging, meals, and related expenses. There is no cost for course tuition or materials. A block of hotel rooms for course participants will be available for those who wish to take advantage of it.
Availability: Space is limited to approximately 40 participants.
To apply to participate:
- If you are an employee of the United States Department of Agriculture, please contact contact Dr. Kim Forde-Folle (USDA-APHIS-VS-CEAH, Kim.N.Forde-Folle@aphis.usda.gov).
- If you are not a USDA employee, please contact course coordinator Aaron Reeves (Aaron.Reeves@colostate.edu).
- Please note that these courses fill quickly: if we cannot accommodate you, we will ensure that you have high priority the next time the course is offered.
Course objectives
Upon completion of this course, participants should be able to:
- Understand and apply the concepts of a basic reproductive ratio and herd immunity
- Utilize the principles of stochastic processes, distributions, and probability density functions
- Develop deterministic and stochastic simulations based on the principles of the Reed-Frost model
- Calculate diagnostic or screening test sensitivity and specificity, and develop models of testing regimes
- Understand the principles of Monte Carlo and Markov chain simulation modeling
- Construct conceptual and spreadsheet-based models of epidemiologic phenomena
- Develop parameters for and use sophisticated disease simulation tools, such as NAADSM
- Appreciate the applications of economic and mathematical modeling
- Recognize and evaluate the capabilities, strengths, assumptions, and limitations of simulation models and model-based investigations
- Effectively communicate the results of simulation modeling studies
For more information
If you have specific questions about this course, please contact either Aaron Reeves or Kim Forde-Folle.